Cataloging the future before it happens

Sunday, June 21, 2009

Charles Stross at LOGIN 2009

Charles Stross, one of my favorite authors, made an excellent keynote about the future of technology at the LOGIN 2009 conference. Keep in mind, Stross is openly taking a deliberately conservative view, assuming essentially no disruptive technologies.

Key points:
  • Expect only one to two orders of magnitude (10x to 100x) improvement in processing power and power consumption.
  • Expect ~ 1tb/s wireless data, but no more.
  • Expect your mobile phone/computer/thingy to be as powerful as your current desktop.
I strongly recommend you read the whole thing:

LOGIN 2009 keynote: gaming in the world of 2030

"Let me give you a handle on this device, the gadget, circa 2020, which has replaced our mobile phones. It's handheld, but about as powerful as a fully loaded workstation today. At it's heart is a multicore CPU delivering probably about the same performance as a quad-core Nehalem, but on under one percent of the power. It'll have several gigabytes of RAM and somewhere between 256Gb and 2Tb of Flash SSD storage. It'll be coupled to a very smart radio chipset: probably a true software-directed radio stack, where encoding and decoding is basically done in real time by a very fast digital signal processor, and it can switch radio protocols entirely in software. It'll be a GPS and digital terrestrial radio receiver and digital TV receiver as well as doing 802.whatever and whatever 4G standard emerges as victor in the upcoming war for WWAN preeminance."

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